Soybean Outlook Brightens, But Farmers Say, “We’ve Heard That Before”

After months of watching soybeans pile up and prices flatten, there is finally a little good news for U.S. farmers. China might be ready to buy again, and a handful of new trade agreements in Southeast Asia could help open a few more doors.

Still, out here in farm country, nobody is counting on a miracle just yet.

China May Be Back at the Table

For the first time in seven years, China did not import a single bushel of soybeans from the United States in September, according to customs data reported by Reuters. Nearly eighty-five percent of its soybeans came from Brazil instead, a painful reminder of how far the U.S. has slipped in the global export race.

That could be about to change. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Face the Nation on CBS that China plans to make substantial soybean purchases as part of a trade framework being developed between Washington and Beijing.

According to Reuters, Bessent said Chinese officials are heading into this week’s meetings ready to make a deal that supports American farmers. It is not signed yet, but even the hint of renewed buying has sparked cautious optimism across the Midwest.

New Trade Partners in Southeast Asia

While all eyes are on China, some smaller but important trade deals have quietly taken shape elsewhere.

The American Soybean Association (ASA) confirmed that the United States has signed new soybean agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, along with trade frameworks with Vietnam and Thailand. These deals are designed to reduce tariffs, simplify import rules, and make it easier for American soybeans and feed products to move into Southeast Asian markets.

Thailand’s pledge to purchase about 2.6 billion dollars a year in U.S. soybean meal and other feed commodities is one of the largest commitments in the package, according to the ASA.

For farmers, that means more potential outlets for soybeans even if China stays unpredictable.

Crush Demand Keeps the Lights On

While export headlines dominate, steady domestic demand continues to be the safety net.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that roughly 57 percent of this year’s soybean crop will be processed in the United States into oil, meal, and biodiesel, the highest share on record.

That growing “crush demand” has helped soften the blow of slow exports, giving processors and local elevators more reason to keep beans moving even when foreign sales lag. For those who are not familiar, “crushing” simply refers to processing soybeans into two key products: soybean oil, used for cooking and renewable fuel, and soybean meal, a high-protein feed for livestock.

The Road Ahead

There is reason to be hopeful, but also every reason to stay cautious. Brazil harvested a record 169 million metric tons of soybeans this year, according to the USDA, keeping it the world’s top exporter. Even if China starts buying again, the United States will not easily reclaim the ground it lost.

And at home, many farmers are still facing thin margins, high input costs, and bins full of unsold beans. Some are storing what they can and waiting for better prices, while others are selling now just to cover the bills.

If the trade framework turns into real contracts and shipments, prices could see a small bump. But for now, it is mostly talk, and farmers know better than to celebrate early.

“Soybean farmers are going to be extremely happy with this deal for this year and the coming years,” Bessent said on CBS.

Out in the country, most producers are saying the same thing: “We will believe it when we see it.”